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The UN General Assembly is expected to vote overwhelmingly in favour of enhanced Palestinian membership of the United Nations.
And it could carry far-reaching consequences.
The draft text, co-sponsored by Ireland among others, will recognise that Palestine is qualified for full UN membership and recommend that the Security Council reconsider the matter, after it was blocked by a US veto last month.
Depending on whom you ask, today’s vote could be the first step on a path to lasting peace in the Middle East or alternatively, a prize for terror that will lead to the defunding of the United Nations by the United States – currently the body’s largest donor.
Whatever way the situation is viewed, this is a big moment, and diplomats inside the UN were feeling tense this week, not least as discussions were taking place against the backdrop of Israel’s imminent ground incursion into Rafah.
Why today’s vote has the world’s most powerful nations worried
The US has long made clear its opposition to Palestinian membership of the UN on the grounds that it should not precede a bi-lateral peace deal between Israel and Palestine.
On 18 April, the US mission vetoed a Security Council resolution recommending Palestinian membership.
Of course, no country holds a veto in the General Assembly and the US feared this was an attempt to circumvent the Security Council, the only UN body with the authority to accept new members.
“What we are concerned about is the precedent it sets,” US Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Robert Wood told reporters earlier this week.
“There is clearly outlined in the UN Charter, the procedure and the process for obtaining full membership in the United Nations and I think any process that goes around that, to us is very concerning and I think all UN member states should be concerned,” he said.
Indeed, several other member states were very concerned, not least other permanent members of the Security Council, namely Russia and China, who do not want their veto power undermined by small would-be members either.
According to diplomatic sources, Russia and China, alarmed that Palestine’s success could open the door to similar membership bids by the likes of Kosovo or Taiwan, which they staunchly oppose, put pressure on the Palestinian mission to alter the text.
An extra line was inserted which would ensure that Palestinian membership would be considered “on an exceptional basis without setting a precedent”.
Meanwhile, the US had another pressing concern.
A law enacted in the 1990s precludes the US from sending funds to the United Nations in the event that Palestine is accorded “the same standing as member states”.
Again, changes were made, spelling out that the Palestinians would not have the right to vote in the General Assembly or put forward its candidature to UN organisations, such as the UN Security Council.
The new wording may be enough to ward off a move by Congress to de-fund the UN.
But it may not be, diplomats said, especially in the event of a victory by Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election, who is no fan of the United Nations.
It is certainly what Israel will demand.
“This initiative is bypassing the Security Council and therefore the UN Charter,” Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Gilad Erdan said.
“It will prove how disconnected the UN is from reality and how it rewards terrorism. If it is approved, I expect the United States to completely stop funding the UN and its institutions in accordance with American law,” he added.
But it is set to be approved and by a long chalk.
What it will mean for Palestine
The last time the General Assembly voted on to upgrade Palestine’s status to “non-member observer state” in 2012, there were 138 votes in favour, nine against and 41 abstentions.
Ireland has been among the most active member states in drumming up support for Palestinian membership, especially among EU counterparts.
And today could see an overwhelming majority of countries, possibly more than 160, voting yes.
Numbers like these, diplomats told RTÉ News, would send a strong message and potentially galvanise international pressure for a political solution.
With no right to vote or to be voted onto important UN bodies, like the Security Council, this proposal falls short of full membership.
But it will grant Palestinian representatives the right to sit in alphabetical order on the General Assembly floor alongside other member states – currently they sit at the back of the hall – to co-sponsor proposals and participate in international conferences and meetings.
This will allow the Palestinians to “speak and set the agenda on a range of issues,” Adil Haque, a law professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey told RTÉ News.
Supporters believe it could accelerate recognition of a Palestinian state under international law in preparation for a “two-state solution” which the UN has long supported.
“Palestinian membership can contribute to a two-state solution by taking off the table the other options: indefinite occupation and annexation,” Mr Haque said.
“It sets the parameters for negotiations by establishing that the Palestinians have a right to their territory, so if Israel wants to maintain its settlements it has to give the Palestinians something in exchange,” he added.
But critics argue it is the wrong way of going about it.
“Palestine should not be admitted to the UN for a simple reason: it is not a state,” Elliott Abrams, a former Middle East advisor to Republican administrations under Presidents Mr Trump, George Bush and Ronald Reagan, said.
The UN could admit Kurdistan, or the Western Sahara, or Tibet tomorrow, he said, “but that would not make them states as if by magic”.
A two-state solution can only be reached “by mutual agreement,” he added.
But there is already momentum building behind recognition inside the UN.
Across the membership, 142 of the 193 countries officially recognise the State of Palestine with others including Ireland, Spain, Malta and Slovenia poised to follow suit.
“I do believe this resolution can be a big deal,” Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute, a think tank, said.
It reiterates that a Palestinian state must be created based on the 1967 borders he said “and asks the UN Security Council to reconsider the approval of Palestine’s membership”.
“If it passes, it will further show how isolated the US is on this matter and if Biden chooses to defund the UN as a result, it will only undermine the US’s standing even more,” he said.
“Biden’s support for Israel is becoming increasingly costly for the US itself,” he added.
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