Tory losses could impact timing of UK general election

A win is a win and the fewer you have the more crucial they become.

That seemed to be the attitude of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he made his way to Tees Valley on Friday afternoon to celebrate a sliver of good news among a slew of disappointing results.

Tees Valley may have provided some consolation for the Conservative Party, but it did not last long.

By last evening, when the Conservative Party lost the West Midlands mayoralty to Labour, any talk of consolation was a dim and distant memory.

The Tory candidate in the West Midlands, Andy Street, had already served two terms and was a well-known figure not just regionally but nationally following years at the helm of the John Lewis chain.

If the win in Tees Valley had staved off any attempts to oust Rishi Sunak before a general election, then the loss in the West Midlands raised the question of his leadership yet again.

While there does not seem to be an appetite for a leadership contest, it is less because of trust in Mr Sunak and more because he is leading a party which is both fearful and deflated.

The timing of that expected general election could also now be impacted.

While Mr Sunak has refused in recent weeks to rule out a July election, he is unlikely to want to lead his party into another vote so soon.

He may hope that at least a little time might minimise the aura of loss which now surrounds his party and his leadership following the local election results.

It may also give Mr Sunak time to reflect on the fact that those Conservatives determined to win felt the best boost to their chances was to distance themselves from the party.

Much has been made of the fact that the Tees Valley Tory winner Ben Houchen’s election literature referred to the Conservative Party only in the smallest of print, suggesting that at a grassroots level at least some candidates view a direct association with the Tories as a hindrance rather than a help.

Andy Street took a similar approach in the West Midlands.

His campaign literature was not even printed in the traditional Tory blue and he drafted in the former Conservative leader Boris Johnson to help him rally support with the former British Prime Minister at one point urging voters to “forget about the government”.

It raises the question of how much of this electoral failure comes because of Mr Sunak’s leadership rather than what went before him.

Almost a decade and a half in power, most political parties would struggle to present themselves as fresh, new and different at this point.

Add to that the fact that Mr Sunak took over after the tumultuous (and short) leadership of Liz Truss as well as the tumultuous (though longer) leadership of Mr Johnson, which followed the tumultuous leadership of Theresa May and it is easier to understand the mountain Mr Sunak has to climb.

While local elections cannot provide a clear gauge of what voters would do on a national basis, the narrative which has emerged is one which the Conservative Party will not relish.

Although jubilant over the increase in their vote numbers and the overwhelming success in the Blackpool South by-election, these elections have identified some danger points for Labour.

The reduction in the Labour vote in areas with a high Muslim population like Oldham can be ascribed at least in part to the party’s stance on the war in Gaza.

And while Labour will point to their successes in this set of elections, it will also be conscious of the need to avoid any sense of complacency amongst voters.

Voters who fail to turn out simply because they think that a general election result is a foregone conclusion are the concern of every party, none more so than the party which is ahead in the polls.

And that is a crown Labour can now justifiably claim.