Poll suggests SF gain three seats in European elections

A new poll suggests that Sinn Féin will gain three seats in the upcoming European Parliament elections, while Fine Gael will lose three.

The poll for the European Council on Foreign Relations predicts that Sinn Féin will double its vote on the last election in 2019 and enable the party to jump from one seat to four seats.

Fine Gael support is predicted to slump by 8% and lead to a decrease in seats for the party from five seats to two.

The survey suggests that Fianna Fáil will increase its seats from two to three, and the Social Democrats could gain their first ever European Parliament seat.

The Green Party, it is indicated, could lose a seat and slide from two to one.

In an error in the poll, it suggests that People Before Profit has two European Parliament seats when in fact the party has none.

It appears to relate to the left-wing MEPs Clare Daly and Mick Wallace who stood as Independents4Change in 2019.

The poll suggests that either Ms Daly or Mr Wallace will lose their seat, and also indicates that a right-leaning Independent will secure a seat.

The overall finding of the poll is that the 2024 European Parliament elections will see “a major shift to the right in many countries, with populist radical right parties gaining votes and seats across the EU, and centre-left and green parties losing votes and seats.”

It projects that “anti-European populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states (Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia) and come second or third in a further nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden).”

It suggests that “a populist right coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical right MEPs could emerge with a majority for the first time.”

It believes “this ‘sharp right turn’ is likely to have significant consequences for European-level policies, which will affect the foreign policy choices that the EU can make, particularly on environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change.”

The poll’s methodology is described as being “… based on a statistical model which predicts the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections” and incorporates opinion polls. No margin of error is stated.