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More house price growth likely after moderation in 2023

House price growth moderated last year but prices are likely to continue rising in 2024, according to the latest analysis by property advisors DNG.

It recorded growth of just over 4% in the average price of a second hand home outside of the capital last year, a substantial reduction on the 7.6% growth recorded in the year to the end of 2022.

All regions of the country recorded growth in average residential property prices in the last year, according to DNG’s House Price Gauge (HPG).

The strongest growth was in the midwest region where DNG recorded average growth in prices of just under 5.5%, followed by the west, where growth registered at 4.7%, and the Border region at 4.6%.

The lowest rates of growth were recorded in the midlands and Dublin where price growth averaged at 3.6% and 1.8% respectively.

Dublin continues to have the most expensive properties where the average price of a resale property now stands at €531,773 compared to €514,998 at the end of 2022.

“Price growth surprised on the upside somewhat in the second half of last year in the Dublin market however, with the DNG HPG recording an increase in the average price of a second hand home of 3.3% in the six months to December 2023,” the report noted.

Outside of the capital, the highest average price was found in the mideast (€390,112) followed by the southwest (€314,016).

At a national level, and excluding Dublin, the average price of a second hand home now stands at €264,772, according to the report.

DNG forecasts further moderate growth in prices both in Dublin and nationally, with regional price gains again set to outstrip those in the capital.

With a continued market imbalance between supply and demand, the agents are forecasting an average uplift in regional markets of 4% this year while price growth in Dublin will more likely be in ‘low single digits’ again.

“2023 was not without its challenges, however the continued accommodation crisis and the shortage of homes available to purchase, meant that prices rose marginally last year,” Paul Murgatroyd, DNG’s Director of Research said.

“Looking ahead, positive demographic trends, the prospect of falling interest rates and a solid economic backdrop all point towards another year of low but positive price inflation in the residential market,” he said.

DNG Chief Executive Keith Lowe said stronger than anticipated price growth in the latter part of last year meant that the annual rate of house price inflation remained in positive territory for the year as a whole.

“However, the rate of growth was moderate and more sustainable than the market has seen in recent years, and this is undoubtedly welcome news for both buyers and sellers alike,” he said.

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