Lagan Valley has been a unionist stronghold since it was created 41 years ago, with former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson reigning supreme for almost three decades.
He was Northern Ireland’s longest serving MP, first winning the seat as an Ulster Unionist, and then retaining it in successive Westminster elections after defecting to the DUP.
Few would have betted against him if his name was on the ballot paper this year, but his resignation as party leader after being charged with serious sexual offences, which he denies, has changed everything.
The Alliance Party believes it has a real chance to cause an upset while the Ulster Unionists insist they are also in the running.
In the last British General election in 2019 Jeffrey Donaldson’s winning majority was 6,499, with Sorcha Eastwood of Alliance beating the UUP to take second place.
Alliance took almost 29% of valid votes while there was a swing of 16.4% away from the DUP, and it was the first time the unionist majority was less than 10,000.
The DUP candidate this time is Jonathan Buckley, a hugely ambitious up and coming politician who actually lives in the neighbouring constituency of Upper Bann, which he represents in the Stormont Assembly.
The fact that two high-profile DUP Assembly members in Lagan Valley, deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly and Education Minister Paul Givan, did not opt to put their names forward perhaps indicates a nervousness about the outcome.
The DUP is facing battles on several fronts to retain a seat that until very recently was regarded as rock solid.
Jeffrey Donaldson had a huge personal vote and took many former Ulster Unionists with him when he defected to their bitter political rivals.
No one has any idea what proportion of that personal vote will transfer to Jonathan Buckley, or haemorrhage to the Ulster Unionist candidate – the party’s deputy leader and one of Lagan Valley’s five Assembly members, Robbie Butler.
A former firefighter, Mr Butler has a high profile in the constituency and took just under 20% of the vote in the 2019 General Election.
But the biggest threat to the DUP comes from Sorcha Eastwood, another Assembly member and high-profile candidate who famously voted in the 2017 UK General Election in her wedding dress.
She is seeking to become the first woman as well as the first non-unionist to represent Lagan Valley in the House of Commons.
In the 2019 poll she achieved the best ever result for Alliance in the constituency with almost 29% of the vote.
Three years ago, the Alliance surge continued when it secured a second Stormont Assembly seat in Lagan Valley with a combined first preference vote of 12,394, finishing 5,294 behind the DUP.
Sorcha Eastwood will also hope to benefit from the decision by Sinn Féin not to field a candidate in Lagan Valley.
The move is viewed as a very clear signal to Sinn Féin voters in the constituency to back the Alliance candidate this time around.
The SDLP has also fielded a relatively low-profile candidate so Alliance will hope to mop up some of its voters who would like to oust the DUP.
The Traditional Unionist Voice is also seeking to make like as difficult as possible for the DUP.
The TUV has strongly criticised the DUP for going back into power sharing and accused it of misleading unionists about the so-called Irish Sea border, which it says undermines Northern Ireland’s constitutional position within the UK.
TUV candidate Lorna Smyth took 3,488 first preferences in the 2022 Assembly elections and she will hope to benefit from any Irish Sea Border or power sharing unease within DUP ranks.
DUP strategists will also be concerned that some of its more conservative, religious supporters may switch support or opt not to vote at all because of the circumstances of Jeffrey Donaldson’s political demise.
Ms Eastwood needs a lot to go right if she is to rewrite history: a combination of a split in the unionist vote that results in a reduction in DUP support and an increase in those voting Alliance, including tactical voting by nationalists.
Incumbency is a vital factor in all elections and the DUP will hope its party brand is strong enough to overcome any loss of support caused by damage to Jeffrey Donaldson’s personal brand.
2019 General Election
Valid votes – 45,405
Turnout – 60.20%
DUP – 19,586
Alliance Party – 13,097
UUP – 8,606
SDLP – 1,758
Sinn Féin – 1,098
Conservatives – 955
UKIP – 315
2024 Candidates
Jonathan Buckley – DUP
Robbie Butler – UUP
Patricia Denvir – Green Party
Sorcha Eastwood – Alliance Party
Simon Lee – SDLP
Lorna Smyth – TUV
