HSE had no evidence for claim around 2004 smoking ban

A HSE claim that there had been a decrease of 800,000 smokers since 2004 was not backed up by any of the Census data it was relying on, it has emerged.

Last month, it made the claim on the 20th anniversary of the introduction of the smoking ban.

The headline of its press release stated: ’20 years since Ireland banned smoking indoors with 800,000 fewer smokers today’, while its first paragraph said ‘It has been 20 years since the government introduced the Public Health (Tobacco) Act banning smoking in all workplaces, bars and restaurants. 800,000 people have stopped smoking in that time, saving countless lives in the process.’

An Associate Professor at UCD who’s examined the claim has described several issues rendering it incorrect.

The claim was repeated on RTÉ’s News at One, was the headline on the RTÉ online story and carried by most of the national media titles, including the Irish Times, who headlined its story ‘Smoking engaged in by 800,000 fewer since ban introduced 20 years ago, HSE says’.

However, it is based on data from the 2022 census, but that data contains no information at all to the date people may have given up smoking.

When the figures were first queried, the HSE press office gave an explanation around a drop in smoking rates from 27% to 18%.

RTÉ News has estimated that this method would have meant a decrease of around 380,000 smokers.

Three weeks later, it provided a different explanation, this time basing it on 2022 census data.

It said the 800,000 figure was made up of a calculation of everyone over the age of 38 who had answered the 2022 Census saying they had smoked once but had since given up.

The census question contained no information on the date that people had given up smoking.

In a statement, the HSE said it acknowledged “that the figures provided in the release were not clearly explained and we apologise for any confusion as a result.”

Speaking about the statistical accuracy of the press release, Professor Patrick Murphy from UCD School of Mathematics and Statistics said: “The press release appears to be solely based on data from the 2022 CSO Census of Population which asked a question about smoking habits. The 800,000 figure in the press release attempts to measure those who were over 18 in 2004 when the smoking ban was introduced.

“Unfortunately, there are several issues with understanding the true meaning of this 800,000 number.

“Firstly, there is no indication from the Census data when these people gave up smoking – some, or indeed many, may have given up prior to the ‘Smoking Ban’ in 2004. So, the press release is incorrect in stating categorically that 800,000 have given up since 2004.

“Secondly, for those that did give up since 2004 there is no evidence from the census question as to whether the smoking ban was the actual cause. There may be numerous other causes (medical advice being an obvious one). The Census did not ask about the cause only if people had given up at any stage of their life.

“Thirdly, a large proportion of the population living here now, including those over 38 years old, were not in Ireland in 2004. Many of these people may have ceased smoking prior to coming to Ireland so the Irish smoking ban would not have impacted them at all.”

However, the HSE has said it is “satisfied with the estimated figure of 800,000”.

In a statement about the smoking ban it said: “Smoking is a relapsing and remitting problem and in addition to helping people who smoke to quit it also supports people to sustain quitting and avoid smoking relapse.

The Department of Health was also asked if it agreed with the HSE’s figures and whether they had an alternative method of calculating them.

In response, it said Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly would continue to examine all options to make Ireland a tobacco free society.

It highlighted measures taken under its national tobacco control policy to reduce smoking in recent years, such as the 2016 smoking ban in cars when children are present, standardised packaging of tobacco products brought in in 2017, as well as the Public Health Act last year.