The iconic giant shipyard cranes of Samson and Goliath dominate the skyline of east Belfast.
In the streets they have watched over for the past 50 years, two political titans are locked in a battle that could have far wider implications than who represents the constituency in the House of Commons.
DUP leader Gavin Robinson is engaged in a fight for his political future.
Alliance Party leader Naomi Long is seeking to repeat a political earthquake by defeating a DUP leader in the constituency for a second time. In 2010 she sent shockwaves through the DUP by beating Peter Robinson, who had been MP for the area for 31 years.
That shock result followed a tumultuous period for Mr Robinson, whose wife Iris stepped back from politics after revelations about an affair, questions about her financial affairs, and questions were also raised about a land deal he was involved in.
This election comes during another period of turmoil after former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson was forced to resign after being charged with serious sexual offences, which he denies.
Gavin Robinson has defeated Naomi Long in three General Elections since that 2010 upset, but in the last poll in 2019 his winning margin was cut to 1,819.
Boundary changes have added a few hundred additional unionists to the constituency, but the DUP leader’s task has been made more difficult this time around by a decision by the Traditional Unionist Voice to field a candidate.
The party has accused the DUP of selling out on Brexit and returning to power sharing at Stormont without securing meaningful change to the Windsor Framework post Brexit trade deal, as it has claimed.
The TUV candidate John Ross, a former member of the British Army’s Parachute Regiment, will seek to benefit from comments by Gavin Robinson earlier this month when he conceded that the DUP oversold its deal with the British government that restored devolution.
If the TUV persuades a significant number of DUP voters to abandon ship, Gavin Robinson will be in real trouble.
Naomi Long will aim to capitalise on any split in the unionist vote and to build on her 2019 performance.
Her party achieved a record result in the Stormont Assembly elections in 2022 and in East Belfast it out polled the DUP for first preferences.
The Alliance leader may be aided by a decision by Sinn Féin to once again not contest the constituency, instead urging its supporters to back “progressive candidates”.
But unlike in 2019 the SDLP is in the field this time, its candidate is well known and well-regarded Belfast city councillor Seamas de Faoite.
That could lead to some SDLP supporters who lent their vote to Alliance five years ago returning to the mother ship.
Defeat for the DUP in its east Belfast heartland would be hugely symbolic and a bitter blow for unionism.
Belfast is divided into four constituencies, with Sinn Féin representing West and North and the SDLP representing South.
If those seats are retained and the DUP loses East Belfast there will be no unionist MP in Northern Ireland’s capital city for the first time in its history.
But there could also be wider implications.
While this is an election to the House of Commons, the result in East Belfast could have huge ramifications for the future of Stormont.
If Gavin Robinson loses his seat his credibility and standing within the party he has led for just three months would be severely undermined.
The party could choose to co-opt him into Stormont in place of one of its two sitting East Belfast Assembly members, but he would enter Parliament Buildings from a position of weakness.
That could potentially result in a challenge to his leadership or a review of the party’s decision to go back into power sharing, or both.
Those giant cranes that overlook the streets where this titanic tussle is taking place are painted yellow, the colour of the Alliance Party.
Gavin Robinson will hope that’s not an omen of what’s to come.
2019 General Election
Valid votes – 42,450
Turnout – 64.34%
DUP – 20,874,
Alliance Party – 19,055,
UUP – 2,516
2024 Candidates
Seamas de Faoite – SDLP
Naomi Long – Alliance
Ryan North – Independent
Gavin Robinson – DUP
John Ross – TUV
Brian Smyth – Green Party
Ryan Warren – UUP
