A savvy politician can read the room.
When the DUP agreed to go back to go Stormont in February, Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart let it be known that she was not a fan of the decision.
She took the view that post-Brexit trading arrangements still left a border in the Irish Sea.
Unionists in the constituency are predominately DUP supporters.
Many remain conflicted about whether the Windsor Framework has left them constitutionally cut off from the rest of the United Kingdom.
The DUP has been finessing its message to voters on how much was achieved in negotiations with the British government over it.
Former party leader Jeffrey Donaldson claimed he had effectively removed the Irish Sea border when he agreed to go back to Stormont.
His successor Gavin Robinson has adopted a nuanced position, talking about work left to do.
Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice is hoping to exact a price from DUP politicians that it claims abandoned the leverage of its Stormont boycott.
But when Mr Allister announced his TUV candidates, he said the party was not standing in Upper Bann.
The main motivation was to avoid a split in the unionist vote which risked handing the seat to Sinn Féin.
But Ms Lockhart’s stance on the Brexit deal fed into the decision too.
It means she goes into this election with an 8,200 vote majority over Sinn Féin and no challenge from the right of unionism.
Sinn Féin is running a different candidate this time, Catherine Nelson.
Ms Nelson is a teacher, councillor and former MLA who is well known in the constituency.
Alliance is running a sitting MLA, but is up against it with the first-past-the-post system.
Both the SDLP and Ulster Unionists are fielding sitting councillors as candidates.
Recent boundary changes are expected to have little impact.
Sinn Féin outpolled the DUP at the 2022 Assembly election and had a good showing at last year’s local government elections.
It will be hoping to build on that.
It has had its eye on the Westminster seat in this constituency for a while, but it may have to wait.
2019 General Election:
Valid Votes: 50,045
Turn Out: 60.74%
DUP 20,501; Sinn Féin 12,291; Alliance 6,433; Ulster Unionist 6,197; SDLP 4,623
2024 Candidates:
Kate Evans – UUP
Carla Lockhart – DUP
Catherine Nelson – Sinn Féin
Malachy Quinn – SDLP
Eóin Tennyson – Alliance
