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UK election could herald a new political dawn in NI


This is yet another defining week for politics in Northern Ireland.

A week in which defeat for one party leader could help another make history.

A week that sees Northern Ireland’s shortest-serving leader fighting for political survival, while another is aiming to bring his party in from the Westminster wilderness.

Five days that could see the centre ground continue to surge or be left empty-handed.

By early Friday morning, the votes will be counted and the results announced.

It is possible that despite much speculation and tight battles in several key seats the political landscape could remain unchanged.

But it is equally possible that the early morning sunrise could herald a new political dawn.


The DUP

Gavin Robinson has only been DUP leader since 29 March, when his party was shaken to the core by the shock resignation of Jeffrey Donaldson after he was charged with serious sexual offences, which he denies.

By this time next week, the party could potentially be looking for another leader.

The incumbent MP for East Belfast is locked in a battle with Alliance Party leader Naomi Long.

Last time around in 2019, his majority was just over 1,800 votes.

Gavin Robinson faces a challenge from the Traditional Unionist Voice

This time he faces a challenge from the Traditional Unionist Voice, which has strongly criticised what he has labelled the DUP’s “surrender deal” to re-enter power sharing at Stormont.

Mr Robinson was a cheerleader for that deal, rowing in behind Mr Donaldson when he proclaimed that it had removed the so-called Irish Sea border.

Mr Robinson, three weeks ago, rowed back on that claim, conceding that the deal had been over-sold.

The TUV is seeking to punish the DUP for what it has described as a betrayal.

Ms Long is hoping to capitalise on any split in the unionist vote and could benefit from Sinn Féin’s decision not to stand in the constituency.

Ms Long is hoping to capitalise on any split in the unionist vote

That means around 1,000 votes in the nationalist enclave of the Short Strand are potentially up for grabs.

East Belfast is not the only DUP seat at risk – the Alliance Party also has Mr Donaldson’s former stronghold of Lagan Valley in its sights.

Sorcha Eastwood is seeking to become the first non-unionist and first woman to represent the constituency in the House of Commons.

In 2019, she reduced the DUP’s winning majority to just under 6,500 votes and that was against the incumbent Mr Donaldson, who had a huge personal vote.

DUP strategists are hoping the party brand proves stronger than the personal brand to prevent a large proportion of those votes migrating to the UUP or TUV and opening the door for the Alliance Party.

The party also faces potential jeopardy in South Antrim, where former Stormont health minister Robin Swann is standing for the Ulster Unionists.

He is seeking to overcome a DUP majority of 2,689 and the DUP is openly nervous as incumbent MP Paul Girvan has the lowest profile of its eight outgoing members of the House of Commons.

The DUP also faces a challenge in South Antrim where Robin Swann is standing for the Ulster Unionists

For most of Northern Ireland’s existence, the UUP dominated the Westminster stage but goes into this election with none.

Party leader and former British Army officer Doug Beattie is hoping the strategic decision to manoeuvre Mr Swann from his home patch of North Antrim will deliver a victory.

As a new leader, Mr Robinson will not want to lose any ground and will desperately want to retain all of his party’s eight current seats.

His own battle is the most important for the party.

Defeat for him personally would seriously undermine his position as leader and that could trigger a challenge from critics in his ranks.

If no challenge was to emerge, his credibility would be severely damaged.

A news story scheduled to happen on Wednesday, the day before the election, is the last thing Mr Robinson needs.

His predecessor Mr Donaldson and his wife Eleanor are due back in Newry Magistrates Court on sexual offences charges.

Mr Donaldson is facing eleven serious sexual offence charges, which he denies, while his wife is charged with aiding and abetting, which she also denies.

They have to appear in person for a hearing that will decide whether there is sufficient evidence for the case to go to trial court. There is expected to be a huge media presence.

The level of detail that can be reported will be limited, but television screens that night and newspapers on the morning of the poll will carry images of the couple entering and leaving court; not the images the DUP wants people to see just before they cast their votes.


Sinn Féin

Sinn Féin goes into this election needing a bounce following its hugely disappointing results in the local government and European elections south of the border.

It could break a new record simply by standing still.

The party has seven outgoing MPs, just one fewer than the DUP, and is aiming to become the largest local party at Westminster for the first time.

Sinn Féin is confident that Pat Cullen will see it retain Fermanagh South Tyrone

That would secure a remarkable hat-trick as the party is already the largest at Stormont and in local government.

The consensus is that six of its seven seats are safe and it is also favourite to retain the seventh – Fermanagh South Tyrone.

That seat, as my colleague Conor Macauley wrote in his constituency profile, has flip flopped between Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionists over the years and the margin of Sinn Féin’s victory last time around was just 57, the lowest in the entire UK general election.

The party is confident that a high-profile candidate, former head of the UK’s Royal College of Nursing Pat Cullen, and favourable boundary changes will see it retain the seat and its overall total of seven.

Mary Lou McDonald was the key speaker at the launch of the party’s manifesto in Belfast

But the history of tight battles in this seat, and the fact that there is only one unionist candidate in the contest, the UUP’s Diane Armstrong, means they cannot take anything for granted.

The loss of Fermanagh South Tyrone would be a huge setback and rob the party of the momentum shift it undoubtedly craves following last month’s poor showing south of the border.

It was notable that party president Mary Lou McDonald, who is viewed as being under some pressure following those results, was the key speaker at the launch of the party’s manifesto in Belfast two weeks ago, not its leader in Northern Ireland and Stormont’s First Minister Michelle O’Neill.


Alliance Party

The Alliance Party has been riding on the crest of a yellow wave for successive elections.

Its votes and number of elected representatives have grown dramatically and it has broken the nationalist and unionist duopoly, carving establishing itself as a formidable third force in Northern Ireland politics.

If the stars align and all goes well it could emerge from this election with three Westminster seats – North Down, East Belfast and Lagan Valley.

But it could also emerge with none.

Stephen Farry faces a real fight to retain his seat in North Down

Its deputy leader and the party’s sole outgoing MP – Stephen Farry – faces a real fight to retain his seat in North Down.

Unionists and loyalists opposed to the Brexit trade deal which created the so-called Irish Sea border have urged voters to back Stormont Assembly member Alex Easton, a former DUP member standing as an Independent.

The DUP and its hardline critic the Traditional Unionist Vote both opted not to stand in a bid to maximise support for Mr Easton, but the Ulster Unionists are in the field with former British Army officer Tim Collins.

Defeat for Mr Farry would be a major setback for Alliance, victory against such a concerted campaign would be a huge boost.


SDLP

Colum Eastwood goes into this election in the strange position of not appearing to be under any real threat.

The SDLP leader’s majority of more than 17,000 in Foyle makes it currently the safest seat in Northern Ireland and it is widely viewed as unassailable for Sinn Féin.

Colum Eastwood’s majority of more than 17,000 in Foyle makes it currently the safest seat

His Westminster colleague Claire Hanna is expected to retain the newly expanded seat of South Belfast and Mid Down.

The party is running candidates in all 18 constituencies in the hope of increasing its vote share from 2019, the downside being that a reduction in its vote will be viewed as damaging.


Ulster Unionist Party

Party leader Doug Beattie would dearly love to achieve two major upsets – taking a seat off the DUP in South Antrim and another from Sinn Féin in Fermanagh South Tyrone.

The former is viewed as the more likely and would be a major shot in the arm for a party that has been in steady decline for decades.

A victory for Doug Beattie’s UUP in Fermanagh South Tyrone would be seismic

A victory in Fermanagh South Tyrone would be seismic.

The party is also hopeful of a strong performance by its deputy leader Robbie Butler in Lagan Valley.


Traditional Unionist Voice

This is perhaps the last hurrah for the party leader Jim Allister, a persistent thorn in the side for the DUP.

Conditions have never been better for the former DUP member to deal a significant blow to his former colleagues.

Conditions have never been better for Jim Allister to deal a significant blow to the DUP

The DUP is still reeling from the shock demise of Mr Donaldson and has been under sustained attack from loyalists and pro-Brexit unionists, accused of going soft on the so-called Irish Sea border and misleading its members and supporters about the nature of its deal with the British government that restored power-sharing.

The TUV is fielding candidates against seven of the DUP’s eight outgoing MPs and could cause some serious damage.

The exception is Upper Bann where Carla Lockhart will not be challenged, with Mr Allister saying it is “for the greater good” as he does not want to potentially help Sinn Féin take the seat.

As Conor Macauley noted in his constituency profile, the incumbent “read the room” and made a number of high-profile speeches voicing opposition to the DUP deal.

Ironically, a strong showing by the TUV could help Alliance, a party it has also strongly condemned, but Mr Allister would dearly love to give his former employer a bloody nose.

Failure to damage the DUP when conditions are so favourable could see a persistently painful thorn begin to wither.



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