The Government can hold a general election in early 2025, without holding by-elections, even though four TDs were elected MEPs just over a week ago.
The Coalition could well be accused of a sleight of hand, but the rules are clear.
The generally held view, on both Government and Opposition benches, is that a general election will likely be called once Budget 2025 has been delivered in October.
To give effect to the changes which will be announced by Minister for Finance Michael McGrath and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe on 8 October, the Oireachtas will need to vote through the Finance Bill and the Social Welfare Bill.
Once that’s done, it’s game on.
Informed speculation on possible polling dates include Friday 25 October, Friday 1 November and Friday 15 November.
However, if the Coalition leaders Simon Harris, Micheál Martin and Eamon Ryan are taken at their word – many don’t – the Coalition could continue until next March.
But what of those much discussed by-elections, where history suggests any sitting Government is likely to get a drubbing?
Well, Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion, Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen and Independent Michael McNamara will switch from being TDs to MEPs on 16 July.
That’s when the clock starts ticking on the obligation to hold by-elections to fill the vacated seats within 6 months.
The latest date the Government could move the writs would be 15 January 2025.
The Electoral Act stipulates that the by-elections in the four constituencies would have to be held “not earlier than the 17th day or later than the 25th day next following the day on which the writ or writs for the election is or are issued.”
But there’s another rule which the Coalition could avail of, weeks after moving the by-election writs.
It’s Rule 40 and it states that a general election takes precedence over a by-election.
The rule states: “Where a dissolution of the Dáil takes place after a writ has been issued…the writ shall become and be annulled by the dissolution and no further steps shall be taken in respect of the bye-election and the writ shall be returned to the Clerk of the Dáil.”
So, the Government could move the writs for the by-elections, which will allow it to continue up to early February, and then call a general election which would be held between 21 and 28 days after the dissolution of the Dáil.
The by-elections simply disappear.
Of course, being technically able to do something does not necessarily mean you should do it.
There could be a political price.
But the Government is in a more comfortable position since the European elections, as three Opposition TDs are heading to Strasbourg, as opposed to one Coalition deputy.
It makes it easier, therefore, for the Taoiseach to get his legislation through the Oireachtas.
Speaking on RTÉ’s The Week In Politics yesterday, Government Chief Whip Hildegarde Naughton said there would be “no taking the foot off the pedal”.
The Minister of State, who sits at Cabinet, said the Coalition has “a lot of work to do in continuing to deliver the Programme for Government”.
Yet when pressed by presenter Áine Lawlor about when a general election would be held, she conceded: “I don’t know, is the straight answer.”
There’s only one person who does know, and that’s Mr Harris.
And he might not make a final decision for some time – a decision which is his and his alone. It’s also highly unlikely that he will give much of an indication of his intentions before the actual announcement.
Last week, the Taoiseach said he didn’t fear by-elections.
The Tánaiste said he even liked them.
After strong showings in the local and European elections, both men might fancy their party’s chances to win.
One thing Mr Harris does know for certain is that there is a way of continuing in office into 2025 without the need to run those pesky by-elections at all.
