South Antrim has only ever returned a unionist MP. In recent years, the seat has flip flopped between the DUP and Ulster Unionists.
This time it looks set to be an intriguing battle, one where the DUP incumbent will be looking anxiously over his shoulder.
Paul Girvan has won this seat for the party several times, but he’s the lowest profile of the DUP’s current crop of eight MPs, rarely seen or heard on the media.
He goes into the 4 July poll with a 2,689 majority over the Ulster Unionists.
He faces a double challenge to retain the seat. His main rival is former Stormont Health Minister Robin Swann of the Ulster Unionists.
Mr Swann is a popular, high-profile politician widely regarded as having helped steer Northern Ireland capably through the Covid lockdown. As such he presents a significant threat to DUP retention of the seat.
But the bigger issue for the DUP is the presence of a candidate from Jim Allister’s hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) in the field.
The TUV didn’t stand here in 2019 but is running now to punish the DUP for “going soft” on the Irish Sea border.
The accusation is that having pledged to sweep it away, the DUP ended its Stormont power-sharing boycott while checks on goods moving from Britain to Northern Ireland under the post-Brexit Windsor Framework remain in place.
The TUV has a decent vote in South Antrim. At the 2022 assembly election the same candidate running this time polled more than 4,000.
There’s also some evidence of tactical voting by nationalists which would present an additional element of jeopardy for the DUP.
A couple of things may work in the DUP’s favour here though.
This is not Robin Swann’s natural constituency, he’s a North Antrim MLA and is being run here because the party thinks it has a credible shot at the seat.
Alliance also polls well in this constituency. Its candidate is a well-regarded local MLA who has been building the party’s vote share here. He was third in 2019.
Alliance could continue to be an attractive option for soft unionists and depending on their number that could detract from the Ulster Unionist vote.
The decision of Robin Swann to step down as Stormont health minister to run for Westminster caused some controversy at the time.
It could turn out to be a clever move, returning an Ulster Unionist MP for the first time since 2017.
It will be tight though.
2019 Result
Valid Vote: 42,974
Turnout: 60.23%
DUP: 15,149
Ulster Unionist: 12,460
Alliance: 8,190
Sinn Féin: 4,887
SDLP: 2,288
2024 Candidates
John Blair – Alliance
Paul Girvan – DUP
Declan Kearney – Sinn Féin
Mel Lucas – TUV
Roisin Lynch – SDLP
Siobhan McErlean – Aontú
Robin Swann – UUP
Lesley Veronica – Green Party
