It’s not as complicated as in previous years but there are still sums to be done ahead of the final weekend of Guinness Six Nations action.
The Grand Slam is gone but Ireland, despite a deserved 23-22 defeat to England at the weekend, are sitting pretty at the top of the table.
Bonus-point wins over France, Italy and Wales, and a losing point from Twickenham means Ireland have 16 points.
Mathematically, France and Scotland, on 11 points, could still win the championship, but it’s one of those that requires an impossible swing in points difference.
Andy Farrell’s men are in fine fettle on +80 points, effectively worth a point in the table in the event that both Scotland (+4) and France (+4) record bonus-point wins against Ireland and England to reach 16.
To make that scenario even more unlikely is the fact that Scotland would have to ensure Ireland get nothing from the game, i.e. win by more than seven and restrict Ireland to fewer than four tries.
It’s a long shot.
But it’s England who will be looking on with interest at the goings-on in the Aviva Stadium for the 4.45pm kick-off as they wait to face France at 8pm in Lyon.
With Scotland, who have beaten Wales and England, going for a triple crown, Steve Borthwick will have his fingers crossed that they can cause an upset and beat Ireland away in the championship for the first time since 2010.
England’s points difference is -3 so they won’t make that up but if Scotland can stop Ireland getting a bonus point, then a five-point haul from the final game of the tournament would see the Red Rose up to 17 points and claim a first title since 2020.
However, the ball is in Ireland’s court and a win or a draw takes everything else off the table and they would go back-to-back in the Six Nations for the second time (2014, 2015).
There is also the possibility of the unedifying spectacle of Ireland scraping over the finish line with a losing bonus point, and then lifting the Six Nations trophy as Scotland celebrate their first triple crown since 1990 with a lap of honour at Lansdowne Road.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
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Watch Wales v Italy in the Guinness Six Nations (2.15pm) and France v England (8pm) on Saturday on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, follow a live blog on France v England on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app
Follow a live blog on Ireland v Scotland in the Guinness Six Nations on Saturday from 4pm and listen to live commentary on Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
Watch Wales v Italy and France v England in the Under-20 Six Nations on Friday night from 7.20pm and 7.50pm on RTÉ Player
