No matter the outcome of this contest there will be a new MP for the constituency.
Mickey Brady has held the seat for Sinn Féin since 2015, but he is stepping down.
His replacement on the ballot paper is Daire Hughes, Sinn Féin’s deputy General Secretary and a former mayor of Newry and Mourne Council before it was amalgamated into a new “super council”.
Mr Hughes is an unknown quantity as he has been out of electoral politics for a decade. His selection illustrates his party’s confidence that it will once again retain a seat it has held since Conor Murphy won it in May 2005, when the former MP and SDLP deputy leader Seamus Mallon retired.
In the last UK General Election in 2019, Mickey Brady had a majority of 9,287 over his DUP challenger and boundary changes since then have resulted in an increase in the proportion of nationalist voters.
For the past 20 years, Sinn Féin has consistently polled in the region of 40-48% of votes in the constituency, so Daire Hughes is the clear favourite.
The focus will be on the battle for second place.
The Traditional Unionist Voice, which has accused the DUP of going soft on Brexit and the so-called Irish Sea Border, did not contest this seat in 2019 but is in the running this time.
The DUP candidate is councillor Gareth Wilson while the TUV is fielding Keith Ratcliff, the party’s deputy chairman, a prominent member of the Orange Order in the area and a local businessman.
Mr Ratcliff polled over 9% of first preferences in the Stormont Assembly elections in 2022, more than 5,000 votes, and could do real damage to the DUP vote.
That could see the SDLP’s Pete Byrne finish runner up.
The current mayor of Newry, Mourne and Down District Council from Crossmaglen in south Armagh finished third in 2019 with 18.6% of the vote.
Alliance support has grown significantly in this constituency during the past two decades, up from just 1.2% in the 2005 General Election to 8.3% in 2019.
The Ulster Unionist candidate is Sam Nicholson, son of Jim Nicholson who was a former UUP MP for the area and an MEP for 20 years.
2019 General Election
Valid Votes – 50,779
Turn Out – 62.94%
Sinn Féin – 20,287
DUP – 11,000
SDLP – 9,449
Alliance – 4,211
UUP – 4,204
Aontú – 1,628
2024 Candidates
Pete Byrne – SDLP
Dáire Hughes – Sinn Féin
Sam Nicholson – UUP
Keith Ratcliffe – TUV
Samantha Rayner – Conservatives
Liam Reichenberg – Aontú
Gareth Wilson – UUP
Helena Young – Alliance
