Generative artificial intelligence could lead to a €40-45 billion bump in the size of Ireland’s economy over the next decade if fully adopted, according to a new study.
The research finds that two thirds of jobs – equivalent to 1.7 million roles – will potentially be assisted by generative AI.
A further 800,000 roles, or 28% of the workforce, are unlikely to be exposed to automation at all it says.
However, the report says that 150,000 or 6% of positions here are likely to have more than half of their work fully or partially displaced by the automation provided by AI and will need to find new employment.
“These workers are likely to see their jobs fundamentally change and may need to be re-employed in new occupations,” the analysis concludes.
The research was carried out by Implement Consulting Group on behalf of Google Ireland between November of last year and March of this year.
Around 8% of Irish businesses had adopted at least one form of AI by last year, the report finds, on a par with the EU average, but behind other Northern European states like Denmark, Finland and Belgium were adoption is already much higher.
58% of Irish business leaders told the authors that AI has already improved the productivity of their staff.
Just over half claim it has generated new ideas which have already been implemented.
The authors estimate that at its peak, the productivity effect of generative AI in Ireland will be equivalent to 1.4% of Gross Domestic Product each year.
However, they also estimate that if there is a five-year delay in making use of the potential benefits of generative AI, the GDP growth potential falls from 8% or €40-45 billion to only 2% or €8-10 billion.
“Ireland should seek to leverage the national presence of multinational tech giants by incentivising partnerships and mentorship programmes between these corporations and SMEs,” partner at Implement Consulting Group, Martin H Thelle, said.
“This can facilitate knowledge transfer, provide access to advanced AI tools and resources as well as encourage the development of AI-based business models in the start-up ecosystem,” he added.
The report predicts that AI could have the greatest impact on Ireland’s large manufacturing sector, potentially boosting annual productivity growth by 1.2% or €15-16 billion.
SMEs lag behind larger corporations on AI adoption, it also says, with 36% of big firms adopting it in 2023, compared to 7% of SMEs.
A higher share of female workers are estimated to be affected by generative AI than males, both positively and negatively.
The report says that in order to be able to compete with other large economies like the US, Ireland will have to depend on AI initiatives being driven at EU level.
However, it also states that gaps in AI drivers here will need to be filled, in areas like talent, development, commercial and research.
“For the past 20 years, Ireland has been at the forefront of the digital age, embracing new technology and leading innovation in Europe,” said Vanessa Hartley, head of Google in Ireland.
“Today we are at an inflection point and we have an immense opportunity to ensure Ireland remains at the heart of this next transition to AI,” she stated.
The report was published as Google launched a new AI education pillar through its digital upskilling programme, “You’re The Business”, which is delivered with Enterprise Ireland and the Local Enterprise Offices.
