There is nothing subtle about Fermanagh South Tyrone. For decades tactical voting has been part and parcel of this contest and will be again.
It routinely sees the bulk of the electorate coalesce around two candidates – one nationalist, one unionist.
The constituency has flip-flopped between the two over the years, but Sinn Féin has won it on and off since 2001 – often with tiny majorities – apart from 2015 when it lost it for one term.
Add in that it is the most marginal seat in the UK and every time it comes up for grabs it is intense.
Michelle Gildernew retained the seat for Sinn Féin in 2019 with a majority of just 57 votes.
She had a proven track record here, so there was surprise when she was moved to contest the European elections in Midlands North-West, where she missed out on a seat.
If Sinn Féin failed to hold Fermanagh South Tyrone there would be some raised eyebrows about that decision.
But they are confident that in high profile trade unionist Pat Cullen they have an excellent candidate.
She stepped down as head of the UK’s Royal College of Nursing to seek the nomination.
Her candidacy was presented as a coup and certainly caused surprise.
She had huge media exposure across the UK as she led nurses in strike action. She has vowed to oppose cuts to the health service if elected.
The fact that there is a major acute hospital in the heart of the constituency could play to her advantage.
Unionist talks over agreed candidate
Facing her is Ulster Unionist candidate Diana Armstrong, a daughter of the late Harry West, a former Ulster Unionist leader who for a few months in 1974 was the MP for this constituency.
He was the man who stood against IRA hunger striker Bobby Sands for a Westminster seat in a 1981 by-election and lost.
Diana Armstrong was selected as her party’s candidate back in January.
Unionists had been in talks more recently about fielding an agreed, non-party candidate.
But Ulster Unionist leader Doug Beattie declined to withdraw, leaving the DUP and TUV little choice but to row in behind her.
Their supporters are being urged to back her. She will be the sole unionist on the ballot.
The SDLP will also run a candidate. He is Paul Blake, a former party councillor in Enniskillen who missed out on a seat in the 2023 local government elections.
The party usually polls between 2,500-3,500 votes in Westminster elections.
Fermanagh South Tyrone is always tight. Boundary changes could prove significant here. Both camps estimate that they are to the advantage of nationalism.
But it will all depend on turnout and in a contest as keen as this, no one is taking anything for granted.
2019 General Election:
Valid Votes: 50,762
Turn Out 70.13%
Sinn Féin 21,986, Ulster Unionist 21,929, SDLP 3,446, Alliance 2,650, Independent 751
2024 Candidates:
Diana Armstrong – UUP
Paul Blake – SDLP
Gerry Cullen – CCLA (Cross Community Labour Alternative)
Pat Cullen – Sinn Féin
Carl Duffy – Aontú
Eddie Roofe – Alliance
