Ireland’s nomination for the position of EU Commissioner is expected to be announced early next week.
The filling of one of the most coveted and sought after jobs in Irish politics will end months of speculation and is likely to significantly reshape the top level of the coalition.
EU leaders will meet on Thursday for a two-day summit, when the negotiating for positions will be in full swing.
The feeling in Government is that the nomination should be made before the horse trading begins and, besides, it feels the person should be named sooner rather than later.
This means it will be ratified by cabinet on Tuesday, or otherwise by an incorporeal meeting of ministers.
For now, all eyes are on the Finance Minister, Michael McGrath. Colleagues widely expect that he will get the nod, but say he is playing his cards close to his chest. Publicly at least he has said little more than he would “give it serious consideration”.
What we know for sure is that it will be a Fianna Fáil nomination – that was the agreement in place between the parties as part of the coalition arrangement.
There had been a lot of speculation that Micheál Martin himself might be interested in the role.
But the local and European election results appear to have cemented a belief that his party is in with a shout of being returned to government at the next general election and so he still holds the prospect of another turn in the office of Taosieach
Those elections also saw the Finance Minister’s brother, Councillor Seamus McGrath, secure a whopping 5,191 first preference votes (the highest in the country) to elect him to Cork County Council.
At the count centre in Cork City Hall he told reporters he was “open to” running for the Dáil “if the opportunity arises” – cementing the belief for many in the party that his brother is destined for Brussels.
The huge vote also meant that if the Minister were to make the move, he would have a ready-made replacement to ensure his Cork South Central seat was safe.
There is a view in the party that changing the finance minister this close to a budget is risky, and some have privately voiced concerns about losing the person they view as their top performer in cabinet, particularly with a general election campaign ahead.
McGrath is viewed as being key to rebuilding the party’s fiscal reputation which had been destroyed in the wake of the crash. After more than a decade as finance spokesperson, he finally got to deliver his first Budget as Minister for Finance last year.
His relationship with Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe has been viewed as the strongest pillar of the coalition government. A new Minister for Finance, which is one of the most powerful portfolios in cabinet would be a significant change, especially so close to the Summer Economic Statement and before the Budget process – involving negotiations with all departments, gets into full swing.
The appointment by Micheál Martin of Jack Chambers to the position of deputy leader of Fianna Fáil is being viewed as a sign that he is in line to take on the finance brief.
A relatively recent change at the top of Fine Gael, a new Green Party leader in the coming weeks, and a new finance minister will create some uncertainty around the crucial internal relations – which got off to a shaky start – but settled into a good rhythm since then.
On the flip side, the selection of McGrath – the minister for finance in a successful economy – is seen increasing Ireland’s chances of securing a more weighty portfolio in the Commission.
Government sources have suggested that Ireland will seek an economic portfolio.
Speaking in Brussels last week, Taoiseach, Simon Harris, said: “It’s important that we put forward people of high calibre. We have a proud tradition of sending people to be good commissioners, and that makes a difference in terms of the influence and portfolios you can have.”
It had been suggested privately by some in Fine Gael that the declaration by Fianna Fáil MEPs that they would not vote for Ursula Von der Leyen as Commission President would damage the prospect of securing a good portfolio.
But this has been dismissed by Fianna Fáil sources who said that at a time she is trying to build consensus across parliament, punishing a member state for what was said to a domestic audience during an election campaign would be counterproductive.
Either way, the coming weeks will see a lot of change for the coalition.
