These elections now look like a straight shoot-out between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to see who emerges as the biggest party when all the votes are counted.
There will most likely be losses for both parties, but nothing too wounding.
Right now Fine Gael looks to have the edge and is best placed to become the biggest party in local government.
The Greens will lose seats but unlike past elections this is not a complete ebb of the electoral tide – even if the party does lose its two MEPs, Ciarán Cuffe and Grace O’Sullivan.
With thoughts of the next general election never too far from the surface, there are this afternoon some trends in Dublin of the Government parties transferring to one another.
For Sinn Féin, the next few days look difficult.
Yes, there will be an increase on its local election vote compared to 2019 but it will be far off those big expectations which appeared valid just a few weeks ago.
All the early indicators suggest that Sinn Féin will not break the 20% first preference support mark in the local elections.
This is even the case in party leader Mary Lou McDonald’s heartland of Cabra and Glasnevin, where Sinn Féin looks to have been out-polled by Fine Gael.
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The big question is, did the party make a strategic mistake in running far too many candidates?
In the European elections anything less than a seat in each of the three constituencies would be a very poor result for Sinn Féin.
But the party will point out that this is, in the words of the academics, “a second order election,” and their electoral form at this point five years ago proved no measure of their general election performance soon after.
The Social Democrats will emerge from these local elections with more seats but that is from a very low base.
Plus the party’s still relatively new leader Holly Cairns had a surprisingly low-key campaign.
Labour might not make net gains but the party’s pulse will still be beating when the dust settles on these elections.
In Dublin the tallies suggest that Aodhán Ó Ríordáin remains in the hunt for the last seat in the European Elections.
The independents will have a good day – most likely exceeding the 19.6% first preference non-aligned candidates won in the local elections in 2019.
