US President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and his Republican predecessor Donald Trump square off tonight in an unusually early debate that will offer voters a side-by-side look at the two oldest candidates to seek the country’s highest office.
The 90-minute televised event – the first between a sitting president and a former one – will air at 9pm US Eastern Time (2am Irish time tomorrow) on CNN and is expected to draw a huge audience.
A record 84 million people watched Mr Trump’s first debate in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
Both men will take to the Atlanta stage with political vulnerabilities that present a mix of risk and opportunity.
The debate is far earlier than normal – more than four months before the 5 November election day – and against a backdrop of national opinion polls showing the two men in a dead heat.
The clash also arrives at a moment of profound polarisation and deep-seated anxiety among voters about the state of US politics.
Two-thirds of voters said in a Reuters/Ipsos poll last month that they were concerned violence could follow the election, nearly four years after a crowd of Mr Trump’s supporters stormed the US Capitol.
Mr Trump, 78, will take the stage as a criminal who still faces a trio of cases, including charges related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
The former president, who has suggested he will punish his political enemies if elected, will need to demonstrate to undecided voters that he does not pose a mortal threat to democracy, as his opponent claims.
Mr Biden, 81, is under intense pressure to avoid verbal stumbles and deliver a forceful performance, after months of Republican assertions that his faculties have dulled with age.
Ahead of the debate, each side is launching a new advertising campaign attacking its rival.
The Biden team said its ad blitz in the Atlanta area focuses on what a second Trump presidency could look like, including threats to reproductive freedom, a ban on abortion, cuts to social security and undermining democracy.
The Trump campaign said it would release two new television ads during the debate, one targeting the economy, illegal immigration and crime and the other focused on Mr Biden’s physical stumbles and saying he “won’t make it four more years in the White House”.
When they take the stage, neither Mr Biden nor Mr Trump will have much room for error, with the opposing campaign likely to seize on any slip-up as evidence of cognitive decline.
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University of Michigan professor and an expert on presidential debates Aaron Kall said this “might be the most highly anticipated and important” one, given the closeness of the race, the country’s deep political polarisation and the potential for a lasting gaffe.
For Mr Biden in particular, he said, a moment of confusion or forgetfulness would prompt “endless news cycles” about his age and refuel speculation about a possible replacement ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August.
While national polls show a tied race, President Biden has trailed Mr Trump in polls of most battleground states and recently saw his financial edge erased after he was convicted in connection with hush money payments made to a adult film star.
“Biden needs a change in the status quo, and this debate is his best opportunity yet to do it,” according to Jacob Rubashkin, an elections analyst at the nonpartisan website Inside Elections.
“Right now, voters are looking at this race more like a referendum on Biden than a choice election, and that’s dangerous territory for him to be in.
“But in the debate he can drive home the contrast angle – and Trump will be in the spotlight as well.”
Biden v Trump presidential debate: What to expect
Neither Mr Biden nor Mr Trump is popular, and many Americans remain deeply ambivalent about their choices.
About one-fifth of voters say they have not made their choice, are leaning toward a third-party candidate or may sit the election out, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.
Mr Biden and Mr Trump have made little effort to disguise their mutual dislike.
During their first debate in 2020, Mr Trump aggressively talked over Mr Biden in a performance that turned off many voters.
CNN will attempt to avoid cross-talk by muting the candidates’ microphones when it is not their turn to speak.
The debate will also take place without an audience, and neither man is allowed to bring prepared notes or props, though they will have a pen and paper.
President Biden advisers say he will emphasise Mr Trump’s role in threatening abortion access, portray him as a danger to democratic norms and remind voters of his often chaotic 2017-2021 term in office.
Mr Biden’s campaign spokesperson, Michael Tyler, said the debate would show the contrast between his efforts to help Americans and Mr Trump’s “unhinged campaign of revenge and retribution”.
Mr Trump will focus on President Biden’s stewardship of the southern US border in the face of record numbers of migrants crossing illegally as well as the economy, particularly inflation, while also questioning his world leadership at a time of war in Gaza and Ukraine, his advisers said.
This “is going to be a great opportunity for President Trump to highlight his strength with Joe Biden’s weakness, highlight his record of success with Joe Biden’s record of failures,” campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said.
The second and final debate in this campaign is scheduled for September.
