The the boxes have been opened and counting is well under way in the local elections, but there are still hundreds of council seats to be filled across the country.
Meanwhile, there are also 14 MEP seats to be filled in Ireland’s three European constituencies.
As a second day of counting begins, we ask what can these elections tell us about the state of Irish politics?
And how will they shape the result of the forthcoming general election?
1. Right for Dublin?
The capital’s city council could see the emergence of a new bloc of representatives, with staunch anti-immigration candidates set to be elected in several areas.
In Ballymun-Finglas, Gavin Pepper, who regularly attends protests against migrant accommodation, looks likely to take a seat in Ballymun-Finglas.
In April, he clashed with Green Party councilor Hazel Chu. Pepper filmed her as she was on the phone, while saying repeatedly “Hazel, do ya like looking down on the working class people, do ya?”
Ms Chu was herself elected to the Council on the first count.
I had the privilege today of being elected on the first count again to Dublin City Council, having exceeded the quota.
A massive thank you to my volunteers, my friends, my party, my family & especially to the people of Pembroke for confirming their faith & trust in me! #LE24 pic.twitter.com/lOgY33HTQi
— Hazel Chu (@hazechu) June 8, 2024
In the north inner city independent candidate Malachy Steenson – once a political activist with the Workers’ Party – is very likely to be elected on Sunday.
Mr Steenson has been endorsed by candidates from the National Party and regularly re-posts online content from them and other groups, including the Irish Freedom Party.
Others who campaigned heavily on anti-immigration platforms and may take a seat include Kevin Coyle in Artane-Whitehall. He was a prominent presence at clashes between pro- and anti-migrant groups on Sandwith Street one year ago, and has been constantly attending protests against migrant accommodation in Coolock.
He has posted or reposted content online in recent weeks saying ‘Ireland is Full,’ ‘Stop the plantation’ and ‘Could Tulsa [sic] be a Child Trafficking Ring?’
Ten days ago, he posted a video from outside the office of Paul Murphy TD. He pointed to a poster from the TD’s office which said ‘End the Occupation of Palestine.’ Commenting on the poster, Coyle said “End the occupation of Palestine? End the occupation of Ireland, you mean, with all these Muslim f*ckers.”
In the six-seat ward, Mr Coyle’s first preference tallies put him at sixth. Several other candidates stood on similar platforms and tallies indicate they received fewer votes in the ward, and may transfer to him to see him take a seat.
2. European counts to shed light on Ireland South
Local election counts were the sole focus of returning officers across the country yesterday.
Today, counting will begin in the three European election constituencies.
While we have some picture of what might happen in the Dublin and Midlands-North-West constituencies from yesterday’s tallies, there was no official tally in Ireland South.
This morning should shed light on what is happening in the sprawling constituency that stretches from the west to east coast.
In Dublin, it looks like tallies point to Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty and Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews being elected.
In Midlands-North-West, outgoing Independent MEP Luke Ming Flanagan looks well poised to hold his seat.
The possibility of the two Fine Gael candidates – Maria Walsh and Nina Carberry – taking two of the five seats cannot be ruled out here.
Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen is likely to take a seat while his party colleague Senator Lisa Chambers is said to have performed strongly in a lot of areas.
Independent Ireland candidate Ciaran Mullooly and Independent TD Michael McNamara are also in with a shout here.
Today, we’ll get a clearer picture from Ireland South.
3. How many seats for 100% Redress?
For the past few years, Mica redress has been a massive issue in the north west.
So much so that a new political party, ‘100% Redress’ contested these elections.
It is campaigning on behalf of homeowners who have been affected by defective concrete products which have left homes destroyed across the region.
Six 100% Redress candidates ran in the seven local electoral areas in Donegal.
Tallies yesterday pointed to some seats for the fledgling party. Today will tell us more about the specifics.
Can 100% Redress win three council seats?
The party is already saying the tallies have given a “powerful” message to the Government.
Could winning seats today point to it winning a Dáil seat in the upcoming general election?
4. How high can Independent Ireland fly?
Independent Ireland-aligned candidates for Europe include Niall Boylan and Ciaran Mullooly, and they will be hoping to see similar success to that achieved by some of the local election allies.
Almost all the sitting councillors aligned with the grouping look set to return to their seats, and win a few new ones too.
In Bray, Athy, Edenderry, Cobh, Westport, Skibbereen and other areas, candidates are in the mix for seats while in Adare-Rathkeale, they will be hoping for two seats.
Read the latest Elections 2024 coverage
5. Boylan v Boylan to boil up?
Tallies from the Dublin European constituency yesterday pointed to Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty and Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews being elected, and four candidates in shake-up for the final two seats.
Sitting Green party MEP Ciarán Cuffe, Labour TD Aodhán Ó Ríordáin and Sinn Féin Senator Lynn Boylan will all be hoping to be the last centre-left domino standing, and snatch each others’ transfers.
At the same time, Independent Ireland candidate Niall Boylan could be in the mix also, and hoping his anti-immigration stance will set him apart and garner transfers from candidates eliminated earlier in the process.
Could we see Boylan versus Boylan for the final seat?
We might have a while to wait, but we will get a better idea once counting actually starts on Sunday.
6. Clearer picture on number of TDs elected?
When the European counts start, political observers will be paying keen attention to something that could have a significant impact in shaping the domestic political picture – the number of TDs who are elected to Europe.
If a sitting TD like the above-mentioned Aodhán Ó Ríordáin is elected to Europe, it will trigger a by-election which must be held within six months.
Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen and Aontú’s Peadar Tóibín are contesting in Midlands-North-West; Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion and Independent TD Michael McNamara are running in Ireland South, and in Dublin – up against Mr Ó Ríordáin – is People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate, Bríd Smith.
If several of them are elected, it could upset the Dáil voting arithmetic and raise the question; will the Government hold the by-elections within six months, or just go-ahead and hold a general election?
It all depends on the number of Government and Opposition TDs that are sent to Brussels.
There is a view that Taoiseach Simon Harris could opt for a general election before holding a series of by-elections.
The question remains to be answered as to whether today’s European election tallies and results will tell us more about the date for the general election.
7. Too many Sinn Féin candidates?
Sinn Féin was heavily criticised for not running enough candidates in the 2020 general election, but it now appears that the party may have run too many candidates in the 2024 local elections.
For example, in Tralee tallies indicate the party has a 26.5% share of the vote but its decision to run four candidates could displace one of its sitting councillors, Cathal Foley.
Similarly, tallies in the Clondalkin area in South Dublin County Council indicate the party is sitting on just 16% of the vote, with four candidates in the race.
Will scenarios like this play out in other electoral areas?
Could the two-candidate strategy of running Chris MacManus and Michelle Gildernew in Midlands-North-West backfire?
If Sinn Féin’s candidate strategy was miscalculated, the scale of that blunder will become clear today.
8. Arise and follow Charlie
“Arise and follow Charlie” was Fianna Fáil’s anthem in the early 1980s in praise of then leader Charlie Haughey.
Cathal Haughey was not even born when the party faithful were singing it.
This weekend, he is taking a big step in rising and following in his grandfather’s footsteps.
He looks set to win a council seat in the Howth-Malahide LEA, on Fingal County Council.
Five years ago, he unsuccessfully contested the local elections in Clontarf.
Yesterday’s tallies show he has over 2,100 votes, an 11% share of the first preference votes.
Today, could mark another chapter in the Haughey political dynasty as his grandson, arises and follows Charlie.
9. Veteran councillor victories
Election 2024 will mark the dawn of some new political careers. But how many seasoned political veterans will retain their seats?
First elected in 1979, Fianna Fáil’s longest-serving councillor Mary Bohan is set to retain her seat on Leitrim County Council in the Manorhamilton LEA.
From Drumkeerin, Ms Bohan has been a councillor since 1979 and will now embark on a tenth term in office.
In neighbouring Sligo, independent councillor Declan Bree, who has been a councillor for 50 years, topped the poll in the Sligo Strandhill LEA.
In Meath, Independent councillor Brian Fitzgerald in the Ratoath LEA, is contesting his eighth local election. He contested a Dáil election as far back as 1982.
Will the veteran councillor retain his seat on Meath County Council? We will find out today.
10. ‘Accuracy over speed’ in marathon counts
Returning officers in at least two count centres have said that they are prioritising “accuracy over speed” in these election counts.
If things continue going by the same slow progress of some of yesterday’s counts, it might take a while today.
By 9pm last night, there were 29 of 949 council seats filled.
Five years ago, at the 2019 local elections, there were 51 of 949 seats filled.
Five years ago, the thirteenth and final count for Midlands-North-West concluded at 8.15pm on the Wednesday.
In 2014, it was 9.40am on the Thursday before the count concluded in the same constituency.
So, the ‘accuracy over speed’ theme is by no means a new phenomenon.
As we said first thing yesterday: it’s a marathon, not a sprint.
